Displacement in Haiti Likely to Rise as Conflict Escalates Between Police, International Troops, and Gangs

27 August 2024

In a new report, Mercy Corps warns of three critical scenarios that could deepen Haiti’s humanitarian and economic crisis. A "very likely" scenario forecasts conflict escalating between the Haitian National Police (PNH), supported by the recently deployed Kenya-led Multinational Security Support team (MSS), and the Viv Ansanm (Living Together, in Haitian Creole) gang coalition, which controls over 80% of the capital Port-au-Prince. Even more troubling, Mercy Corps predicts it is "almost certain" that the number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) will surge as violence intensifies. 

Since the assassination of President Moïse in 2021, gang violence has surged, plunging Haiti into an unprecedented humanitarian crisis, with 47% of its 11.7 million population now in need of aid—a 12.1% increase from 2022. In March 2024, escalating violence in Port-au-Prince displaced over 300,000 people and put 8.5 million at risk of acute hunger. The ongoing insecurity has severely restricted humanitarian access, underscoring the urgent need for timely information and scenario forecasting to help organizations like Mercy Corps effectively respond. 

Mercy Corps’ analysis suggests that while the MSS deployment is “likely” to improve security in Port-au-Prince, significant improvements in humanitarian access may take six to nine months. The initial wave of 400 MSS troops, part of a 2,500-troop commitment, has already been deployed, with full deployment expected by September 2024. This mission, which includes forces from the Bahamas, Bangladesh, Barbados, Benin, and Chad, supports the PNH in securing key supply routes. However, as the Viv Ansanm coalition intensifies its tactics against MSS and PNH forces, the conflict is expected to lead to increased violence in confrontation zones, intermittently restricting humanitarian access and complicating aid delivery. 

Mercy Corps also warns that as violence escalates, more people will be displaced from gang-controlled areas, putting additional strain on host communities in the southern and northern departments. This could further complicate aid distribution efforts and increase economic pressures. Additionally, in a “less likely” but concerning scenario, Mercy Corps predicts that Viv Ansanm could potentially block access to and from Port-au-Prince by infiltrating southern and northern departments, disrupting essential supply routes, and severely impacting humanitarian operations. 

Laurent Uwumuremyi, Mercy Corps Country Director for Haiti, says:   

“The success of the international mission hinges on sustainable security measures maintained by the PNH post-deployment along with adherence to international law by all parties. Despite a relative calm improvement since May 2024, Port-au-Prince remains volatile and the unpredictable movements of criminal groups and their areas of control complicate humanitarian access and safety. To address these challenges and meet the growing needs of Haitians caught in the middle of conflict, we must strengthen local partnerships, develop contingency plans, and explore new ways to reach Haitians in need of support.” 

From 2022 to 2024, Mercy Corps has been providing emergency cash assistance to 32,500 people in Haiti and more than 700 small businesses in three departments, including Port-au-Prince. Since 2019, Mercy Corps has also been working to reduce violence and help young people pursue opportunities through financial inclusion and life skills training for more than 8,000 adolescents. Mercy Corps has worked in Haiti since 2010 to meet urgent needs through cash assistance, boost small businesses and entrepreneurs, build up young people’s skills to become productive, peaceful, and active members of their communities, help communities better prepare for disasters, and improve the incomes and harvests, food security and practices of rural farmers.  

For more information please contact: