Middle East Conflict Has Already Locked in Global Food Insecurity Through 2027

14 April 2026

Economic shocks triggered by the Middle East conflict have effectively set food insecurity outcomes for 2026 and 2027 in some of the world’s most fragile countries, according to new analysis from Mercy Corps. 

The new flash report demonstrates how disruptions to fuel, fertilizer, and shipping have rapidly transmitted to import-dependent economies, affecting planting seasons now underway in Somalia, Ethiopia, and Pakistan. 

A critical global threshold has now been crossed: According to the FAO, disruptions lasting more than 40 days trigger changes in farmer behavior— reducing fertilizer use, switching crops, or planting less – that determine future harvests. That threshold was passed in early April, meaning the impact on global food supply is now effectively locked in even if conditions improve. 

Despite a tenuous ceasefire, trade flows have not normalized, and the announced U.S. blockade of Iranian ports creates greater uncertainty for commercial flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping through the Strait remains severely constrained, and humanitarian shipments are already being rerouted around Africa, adding up to three weeks to delivery times in some cases.  

Key findings include: 

  • Global fertilizer prices have surged during critical planting periods. 
  • Fuel prices rose as much as 150% within days in some markets, driving up transport and water costs. 
  • Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz fell by more than 90%, constraining agricultural supply chains. 
  • In Somalia, fuel spikes have doubled the cost of water in drought-affected areas. 

  • Humanitarian shipments to Sudan are being rerouted via the Cape of Good Hope, adding roughly 6,000 miles and up to three weeks to transit times. 

  • The World Food Programme estimates 45 million additional people could be pushed into acute hunger globally. 

Melaku Yirga, Mercy Corps Vice-President for Africa, says: 

“The food security consequences of this war are already written into harvests that have not yet been planted. Even if prices were to stabilize tomorrow, the most important agricultural decisions have already been made. Farmers are already planting less, or not at all, because they can’t afford the inputs.”   

“These are countries far from the conflict, but fully exposed to its economic shocks. The impact is arriving through markets, not borders, and the consequences will be severe.”  

Across the countries analyzed – Somalia, Sudan, Pakistan, Ethiopia and Myanmar – more than 60 million people are already in need of humanitarian assistance, with response plans significantly underfunded.