DRC Ebola Outbreak Reaches Historic Scale in Three Months   

13 August 2026

Confirmed cases now sit just 35 kilometers from the South Sudan border, along high-risk travel corridors 

As the Ebola outbreak approaches the three-month mark since it was officially declared in the Democratic Republic of Congo, it has become the second largest on record, with more than 4,500 confirmed cases and over 2,100 deaths The death toll doubled in around three weeks, a stark measure of an outbreak moving far faster than DRC’s last major Ebola epidemic, which took just over a year from its declaration to reach 2,000 deaths.   

While DRC remains the center of the crisis, the past three months have shown how quickly the geography of the outbreak is changing. Its widening footprint is raising alarm across the region, particularly for neighboring South Sudan, where no cases have yet been confirmed as the virus moves closer and the window for prevention is closing. 

New Mercy Corps rapid analysis identified four high-risk travel corridors linking affected areas of DRC to South Sudan, either directly or through Uganda. Along one of the most concerning corridors, confirmed cases have been recorded in Aru, Ariwara, and Adja. Ariwara is a longstanding tri-national trading hub that lies approximately 35 kilometers from the South Sudan border.  

Regular cross-border movement reinforces the need for stronger community surveillance, rapid referral and testing, trusted public information and cross-border coordination before a first case is confirmed. The routes identified are commonly used travel corridors, not confirmed routes of Ebola transmission, and preparedness should reflect how people normally move without restricting access to essential services.  

Lancelot Mermet, Mercy Corps Director of Humanitarian Programs for DRC, says: 
"Almost three months since this outbreak was officially declared, its speed and scale are staggering, and the risk of cross-border spread is growing. Even accounting for evidence that transmission began earlier, this outbreak is still moving far faster than those we have seen before. On the ground, we can see what is allowing it to stay ahead of the response: stretched health services, not enough clean water or safe toilets, fragile trust, and insecurity that can cut teams off from the communities that need them most. 

“We have seen new funding coming in, which is an important step. But money will only change the trajectory of this outbreak when it reaches frontline systems and communities quickly. With most new infections still appearing outside known transmission chains, the priority now is to get ahead of transmission rather than continually catching up with it.” 

South Sudan is already grappling with conflict, displacement, food insecurity, disease outbreaks, and the lasting effects of repeated flooding. These overlapping pressures points have stretched health services and humanitarian resources, making early Ebola preparedness even more critical. The Government and partners have stepped up Ebola preparedness, but dedicated funding is scarce, and important gaps persist in staffing, screening, referrals, and isolation capacity. 

Saffea Senessie, Mercy Corps Country Director for South Sudan, says: 
“I have been in a country facing this kind of threat before. During the 2014 outbreak in Sierra Leone, one lesson became painfully clear: time matters. The first imported case may not be detected at a border post. It may be found, or missed, in a family, a market or a local clinic. 

“It is far easier to build surveillance, referral systems and community trust before transmission begins than to build them in the middle of an emergency. South Sudan still has time to prepare and protect communities. Waiting until a first case is confirmed would mean losing the advantage of time, and the consequences could be devastating.” 

Mercy Corps is calling for continued support for the response in DRC, alongside dedicated funding to strengthen preparedness across the region, including in South Sudan. That funding is urgently needed to train community health workers to detect and report suspected cases early; strengthen testing, isolation and referral capacity; provide communities with clear information and access to clean water and protective equipment; and improve cross-border information sharing. 

In DRC, Mercy Corps has supported communities since 2007 through water and sanitation, livelihoods, governance and emergency response, including support to the current Ebola response in Ituri. Since 2005, Mercy Corps has supported communities in South Sudan through food security and livelihoods, WASH and resilience programming. 

Mercy Corps is already present in parts of Western Equatoria, including Mundri East, Mundri West, and Mvolo, areas along the movement of corridors identified in the analysis, and is positioned to scale up community-based surveillance, risk communication, and preparedness.  

Notes to editors 

  • Photos from Bunia, Ituri Province, collected in July 2026, are available for free use here. 

  • Weekly confirmed Ebola cases in DRC increased more than 65-fold in just over two months—from 13 cases in the week ending May 17 to 856 in the week ending July 26—according to Mercy Corps' analysis using publicly available outbreak data. 

  • A WHO-led modelling study published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases in June estimated a 69.3% probability of at least one case reaching South Sudan within its 12-week modelling horizon. The authors cautioned that the estimate was model-based and could change as transmission, travel patterns, and response capacity evolved. WHO has separately classified countries sharing land borders with affected countries at high risk. 
  • Mercy Corps’ rapid analysis, South Sudan Ebola Preparedness and the Risk of Northward Spread from DRC, draws on publicly available epidemiological data and discussions with government authorities, UN agencies, partners and frontline responders to identify preparedness gaps along high-risk movement corridors. The four corridors identified are movement corridors for preparedness planning, not confirmed Ebola transmission routes. This analysis reflects information available as of 31 July 2026. There are no confirmed cases in South Sudan as of the time of this release. 

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