The Long Reach of War

Six weeks of Middle East conflict have sent economic shocks thousands of kilometers from the fighting, hitting five of the world's most vulnerable economies — Somalia, Sudan, Pakistan, Ethiopia and Myanmar. Global urea prices are up 68 percent, Brent crude peaked at 78 percent above pre-war levels, and commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen by 94 percent. The IMF, World Bank and WFP have described this as one of the largest disruptions to global energy markets in modern history, warning that rising food and fuel prices will fall hardest on low-income, import-dependent economies.

The ceasefire announced on 7 April does not mean the Strait of Hormuz is open. Iran has suspended tanker passage and formalized a permission-based transit regime, with major shipping operators including Maersk confirming they will not resume Gulf operations until safe passage is guaranteed. Following the collapse of talks in Islamabad, President Trump announced a US Navy blockade of the strait on 12 April. For as long as Hormuz remains closed, fertilizer, diesel and shipping shocks will continue to reach crisis-affected populations.

The food security consequences of this war are already written into harvests that have not yet been planted. The FAO Chief Economist has warned that conflict disruption beyond 40 days triggers farmer behavioral changes — reduced fertilizer use, crop switching, smaller planted areas — that carry through to the 2026 and 2027 harvests. That 40-day threshold was crossed on 9 April, during the ceasefire window itself, with planting seasons active now across Somalia, Ethiopia and Pakistan.

Even if global oil prices fall, households in these five countries will continue paying war-era prices for weeks or months. Retail fuel prices in import-dependent economies follow global benchmarks up within days but lag significantly on the way down. In Mogadishu, fuel prices rose 150 percent within days of the war beginning. In Sudan, the purchasing power of a humanitarian cash transfer has already eroded by 40 percent. These shocks are landing on populations that cannot absorb them and on humanitarian responses that were already under-resourced before the war began.